As a young buck, baseball was about the battle between batter and hitter; the true head to head test. Hearing the sound of a fastball or the crack of a bat was mesmerizing. Nowadays, baseball has become an addiction centred on something I almost failed in high school: statistics.
Statistics have become one of the most important factors in dictating a player’s performance and, hopefully, their future success or decline. For regular Joes like you and I, these numbers can be confusing and almost demoralizing. Determining which stats truly influence a player’s performance can be a true pain-in-the-ass. We have Earned Runs Against (ERA), Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), Walks plus Hits per Innings pitched (WHIP), Weighted Runs Created (wRC), and so on and so forth. Who knows what these things actually mean? And are they really valuable when trying to find that next big breakout?
Well, I’m here to give you a few shoves in the right direction! I’ll give you a few stats you can look up and use to dictate whether that waiver wire pick might be the next Aaron Judge or Clayton Kershaw (let’s be real: nobody is going to be like THESE guys most likely, but you get the point). Let’s start with some pitching.
When looking for starting pitching in a fantasy league, we look for 3 key things: Production, Effectiveness, and Dominance. We want our pitchers to get wins, limit runs against and walks, and ultimately rack up as many points as possible.
For me, one of the more important stat to look at is Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched (WHIP). This stat shows you how many baserunners a pitcher allows per inning. When a pitcher limits baserunners, he limits the chances of his opponents scoring opportunities. The average league WHIP is about 1.30, so anyone with a score lower than this can be considered a pretty great run preventer.
Secondly, strikeout rates per nine innings (K/9) and walk rates per nine innings (BB/9) are something you can examine to see how much dominance a pitcher has been having over his opponents. Strikeouts count as an automatic out and help the pitcher; walks are free bases given to the opponent, and with them, free chances to score runs. The larger the separation between walks and strikeouts, the more effective a pitcher is. An average K/9 is around 7.7: anything higher than this is an indicator that this pitcher has some nasty stuff that batters just cannot handle. When it comes to BB/9, the average is around 2.9 walks per game. Anything lower than this has very good fantasy upside.
Quality Starts (QS) are what I tend to look for in recent match-ups when picking up a new pitcher. A QS is completing at least six innings in a game while allowing no more than 3 earned runs. These types of outings are important: they limit the deterring factors against the pitcher (hits and earned runs). Checking in on the amount of QS a pitcher has accumulated can help sift out some of the bad apples.
When it comes to finding winning pitchers, these 4 stats can help you find a diamond in the rough. These are the guys who can go through stretches of wins and point production that most fantasy pitching staffs need. Hitters, on the other hand, are a little tougher to predict. Hot and cold streaks are so common in the big leagues that it seems nearly impossible to find a player that is ready for the next step.
When looking at hitters, one of the most important things is producing runs. How do we produce runs? We get on base (Thank you Moneyball for giving us this all powerful knowledge). Getting on base is the single factor that puts you in a place to score and produce points.
Because of this, we look at On Base Percentage (OBP) as a valuable fantasy stat. Some people like to use batting average as a tool to find players, but BA doesn’t incorporate walks into its overall rating. OBP does both. Hits and walks baby; nothing is better than that. An average OBP is .320; look for higher numbers to find those players who love to put themselves in scoring position. There is downside to using OBP though: all hits and walks weigh equally, so a homerun and a single are both counted as just a hit. Keep this in mind when you use OBP to measure a player’s potential.
Another combination of stats to look at is the K% and BB% of hitters. We want players that are going to strike out less and hit/walk more. This translates to points for you! You’re looking for players who are optimizing their time at the plate, not guys who are giving away free outs like strikeouts. An average K% is around 20%, while an average BB% is around 8%. A lower K-rate and higher the walk rate means that the batter is being patient at the plate and making great use of his at-bats. Something to keep in mind though: power hitters tend to strike out at a higher rate, so giving them a bit of leeway is sometimes needed.
For now, these handful of stats should be able to help you find some much needed point providers for your fantasy batters. Just think of Brad Pitt pointing while Jonah Hill states his four favorite words: “He gets on base.”
Well, there you have it! Hopefully these statistics can help you add those needed pieces to your fantasy roster. Although statistics was never that fun in highschool, I can thank fantasy baseball for getting me deep in the numbers game. Feel free to leave comments and with any topics you’d like to see covered!
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